Saturday, March 24, 2012

NCAA Tournament - Elite 8 Preview

Ringer's NCAA Tournament Record
ATS: 35-25
SU: 41-19

We are deep into the Big Dance, and most of the title favorites are still dancing. Michigan State is the only 1 seed that did not make it to the Elite 8. Kentucky, Syracuse, and North Carolina are standing tall as the best teams in the nation. But as we all know too well, anything can happen in March. Here is a look at who I expect to be headed to New Orleans for the Final Four.

West Regional - Phoenix

4 Louisville (+1.5) vs. 7 Florida

How they got here:

Louisville beat: Davidson 69-62, New Mexico 59-56, Michigan St. 57-44
Florida beat: Virginia 71-45, Norfolk St. 84-50, Marquette 68-58

Players to Watch:

Louisville: G Russ Smith has been a catalyst off the bench for the Cardinals
Florida: G Bradley Beal, the Freshman needs to continue his stellar play throughout the NCAAs

Louisville was my pick to come out of this region from the beginning. In fact, I picked the Cardinals as one of my Final Four teams in the preseason. I still believe that. Peyton Siva and Russ Smith have been good in the backcourt. Gorgui Deng and Chane Behanan have picked up their games immensely and have been a big reason Louisville has won its last 7 games. This will continue as Rick Pitino will improve to 7-0 all-time against his protege, Billy Donovan.

Prediction - Louisville 58 Florida 52

East Regional - Boston

1 Syracuse (+3) vs. 2 Ohio St.

How they got here:

Syracuse beat: UNC-Asheville 72-65, Kansas St. 75-59, Wisconsin 64-63
Ohio State beat: Loyola (Md) 78-59, Gonzaga 73-66, Cincinnati 81-66

Players to Watch:

Syracuse: G Dion Waiters may be the Orange's best player. He needs to play like it against the Buckeyes.
Ohio St.: G/F William Buford needs to knock down jumpers against the vaunted Syracuse zone.

There is one glaring weakness for Ohio State, and that is the lack of outside shooters. That is what is needed in order to defeat Syracuse. Wisconsin knocked down 14 3-pointers against the Orange and still lost. Syracuse has been on a mission all season and are on the verge of their first Final Four since they won the National Championship in 2003. That Final Four took place in New Orleans, which is the site of this year's. Coincidence? Perhaps, but the Orange gets Jim Boeheim back to the Final Four.

Prediction - Syracuse 65 Ohio St. 62

South Regional - Atlanta

1 Kentucky (-7.5) vs. 3 Baylor

How they got here:

Kentucky beat: Western Kentucky 81-66, Iowa State 87-71, Indiana 102-90
Baylor beat: South Dakota State 68-60, Colorado 80-63, Xavier 75-70

Players to Watch:

Kentucky: G Marquis Teague needs to continue his emergence as a scorer.
Baylor: F Perry Jones III has to play to his potential to give the Bears a chance.

Kentucky has been the best team all season. They have played like it in the NCAA Tournament as well. They appear to be headed towards New Orleans. Baylor has the talent to compete with Kentucky, but they seldom play to their full potential. The Bears were overmatched almost every time they played an e.ite team this season. They will hang with Kentucky for a bit, but when it is all said and done John Calipari's squad will be going back to the Final Four for the 2nd year in a row.

Prediction - Kentucky 78 Baylor 70

Midwest Regional - St. Louis

1 North Carolina (+2) vs. 2 Kansas

How they got here:

North Carolina beat: Vermont 77-58, Creighton 87-73, Ohio 73-65 OT
Kansas beat: Detroit 65-50, Purdue 63-60, NC State 60-57

Players to Watch:

North Carolina: F Harrison Barnes has to play like an All-American in Kendall Marshall's absence
Kansas: G Tyshaun Taylor should be able to exploit UNC's PG of choice

North Carolina is back in the Elite 8 for another traditional battle. This time around they get Kansas. Roy Williams has had the pleasure of coaching at both schools, winning 2 national titles at UNC. Bill Self took over at Kansas when Williams departed, and won a national title himself in 2008. Both teams are solid down low. Carolina possesses 2 All-ACC performers in Tyler Zeller and Jon Henson. Kansas has Player of the Year finalist Thomas Robinson and blocking machine Jeff Withey. But this game will be won in the backcourt. The loss of Kendall Marshall is a major blow to the Tar Heels. They looked completely out of sync against Ohio without him. No Marshall, means no Final Four for Carolina.

Prediction - Kansas 60 North Carolina 57

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