Saturday, March 24, 2012

2012 MLB Preview

Can you feel it in the air? Spring has arrived, which means it is time to get the Major League Baseball season to get underway. The season is set to begin in just a week and a half. This offseason was full of big time moves. That should make for a very interesting year. Below is a breakdown at how I see the 2012 season unfolding. Play ball!

AL East
NY Yankees 95-67
Boston 92-70
Tampa Bay 91-71
Toronto 82-80
Baltimore 64-98

Once again, the AL East is far and away the best division in the American League. It could make for a very interesting playoff race now that there are 2 wild card teams. Essentially, there could be 3 teams from this division make the playoffs. And just because you finish in 3rd in the AL East, doesn't mean you can't win the World Series. The Yankees did not make any splashes in free agency this offseason. They return pretty much the same team that won the division last year. Boston brought in Bobby Valentine to replace Terry Francona as Manager, and hope that he can restore some order in their locker room after they wilted under pressure in 2011. Tampa Bay was the beneficiary of Boston's historic collapse. The Rays are a young squad that got valuable experience from last year's Wild Card race. Toronto will probably be the best 4th place team in baseball once again. Their lineup is loaded, but won;t be enough to overcome any of the top 3. Baltimore will suffer through another dismal year. In the end, I expect the Yankees to win the division again while Boston and Tampa Bay battle for a Wild Card berth. The Red Sox sneak in ahead of Tampa Bay this time though.

AL Central
Detroit 97-65
Cleveland 85-77
Chicago Sox 80-82
Kansas City 72-90
Minnesota 68-94

On paper, it appears that Detroit has locked up their 1st back to back division crowns since 1934 and '35. The Tigers were already going to be a heavy favorite coming into the season, and then they signed one of the game's best sluggers in Prince Fielder. Now the Tigers have a deadly lineup to accompany the game's best pitcher, Justin Verlander, and a dominant bullpen. It is World Series or busts for last year's American League runners-up. Cleveland and Kansas City have a lot of young talent, but will need to overachieve drastically to contend for the division. Chicago should meddle in mediocrity, and Minnesota has no outstanding talent outside of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Francisco Liriano, none of which can stay healthy. Detroit will walk away with the Central and Cleveland will keep their fans interested until September.

AL West
LA Angels 94-68
Texas 93-69
Seattle 67-95
Oakland 63-99

The LA Angels made a big push to get back into contention for a World Series title with their amazing offseason. They signed the game's best hitter to Albert Pujols to a monster deal and also took their biggest rival's best pitcher when they signed CJ Wilson away from Texas. The cupboard is far from bare for the Rangers though. They still have Josh Hamilton who is in a contract year, and they are hoping that Japanese sensation Yu Darvish can fill the void left by Wilson. This will be a 2-team race. Seattle and Oakland are in rebuilding mode and will not pose a threat to the Angels and Rangers at the top of the West.

AL Batting Champ - Miguel Cabrera (Det)
AL Home Run Champ - Prince Fielder (Det)
AL RBI Champ - Adrian Gonzalez (Bos)
AL Wins Leader - Justin Verlander (Det)
AL ERA Leader - Jared Weaver (LAA)
AL Saves Leader - Mariano Rivera (NYY)

AL MVP - Adrian Gonzalez (Bos)
AL Cy Young - Justin Verlander (Det)

NL East
Philadelphia 94-68
Miami 89-73
Atlanta 87-75
Washington 79-83
NY Mets 66-96

The Phillies fell short of their expectations last season. With a pitching staff that includes Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels, anything short of a world title is a disappointment. They were disappointed in Philly last year. But now they are flying under the radar. That could be a good thing. Ryan Howard is still nursing an Achilles injury and Chase Utley is unable to stay healthy. That means they will be depending heavily upon that pitching staff. Their biggest competitors in the division could be the Miami Marlins. The Marlins had a big offseason. They hired Ozzie Guillen as Manager, signed Jose Reyes and Mark Buerhle, and they are opening a new stadium. It could be a magical year in South Beach. Atlanta has the talent to make the playoffs, but can they shake the effect of last year's collapse? Washington is an up and coming team, but they would need to be a year ahead of schedule to make a legitimate playoff push. The Mets are in disarray. They will be lucky to lose less than 90 games. The East is the Phillies to lose, but Miami and Atlanta should keep it competitive.

NL Central
Cincinnati 89-73
St. Louis 84-78
Milwaukee 84-78
Pittsburgh 75-87
Chicago Cubs 70-92
Houston 57-105

The losses of Albert Pujols from the Cardinals and Prince Fielder from the Brewers shook up the entire landscape of the NL Central. That opens the door for the other teams, especially the Reds. Cincinnati could make it back to the postseason for the 2nd time in 3 years. Now that Pujols and Fielder are gone, Joey Votto could now be the best hitter in the division. There is still enough talent remaining on Saint Louis and Milwaukee's roster to reappear in the playoffs. Milwaukee will need reigning MVP, Ryan Braun, to ignore the distraction of his failed drug test to win the Central. Saint Louis will need Adam Wainwright to return from his injury and give a boost to the pitching staff since they obviously lost offensive production when they lost Pujols. Pittsburgh will make it 2 decades straight of finishing below .500. The Cubs will continue to struggle. The Astros will have the league's worst record in their final season in the NL.

NL West
San Francisco 90-72
Arizona 88-74
LA Dodgers 83-79
Colorado 82-80
San Diego 70-92

Arizona came out of nowhere to win the NL West last season. The D-Backs have staying power. They will return to play in October, but San Francisco will be back as well. Injuries decimated the Giants last season. The World Series champs in 2010 were unable to defend their title. They will have a chance to win it again in 2012 though. Buster Posey will return from injury. He is the catalyst to the Giant offense. His return means that the Giants return to the postseason. LA has the best hitter in the division in Matt Kemp, and the reigning Cy Young winner in Clayton Kershaw. There just aren't enough pieces around them for them to make the payoffs yet. Colorado could go any direction, so the jury is out on them. San Diego will struggle and bring up the rear of the division.

NL Batting Champ - Joey Votto (Cin)
NL Home Run Champ - Jay Bruce (Cin)
NL RBI Champ - Joey Votto (Cin)
NL Wins Leader - Roy Halladay (Phil)
NL ERA Leader - Tim Lincecum (SF)
NL Saves Leader - Johnathan Papelbon (Phil)

NL MVP - Joey Votto (Cin)
NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum (SF)

AL Wild Card
Boston over Texas

NL Wild Card
Miami over Arizona

ALDS
Detroit over Boston
LA Angels over NY Yankees

NLDS
Philadelphia over Miami
San Francisco over Cincinnati

ALCS
LA Angels over Detroit

NLCS
Philadelphia over San Francisco

World Series
Philadelphia over LA Angels

The Philadelphia Phillies will ride their outstanding pitching staff to their 2nd World Series title in 5 years. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels bring a title back to Philly!

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