Wednesday, November 30, 2011

NCAA Football - Week 14 Predictions

Ringer's Record
Last Week ATS: 5-11
Last Week SU: 15-1

Season ATS: 136-106 (56%)
Season SU: 203-50 (80%)

SEC Championship in Atlanta, GA
1 LSU (-12.5) vs. 13 Georgia
I'm not sure that there is too much at stake for LSU in this game. Their grasp on a top 2 spot and an invite to the BCS National Championship seems like a lock. Even with a loss to Georgia, a rematch with Alabama seems inevitable. For Georgia, a win means in all likelihood that a 3rd SEC team will go to a BCS bowl, with the Bulldogs headed to the Sugar Bowl. One may think that LSU will be lacksidasical with not much to play for. But LSU wants to win the SEC title on their way to a national title. They will beat yet another ranked school on Saturday.

Prediction - LSU 34 Georgia 17

10 Oklahoma (+3.5) at 4 Oklahoma St.
There is no Big 12 Championship Game this year, but in a way there is. They just changed the name to "Bedlam" this year. The winner of this heated rivalry game will win the Big 12 and probably be headed to the Fiesta Bowl. Both teams blew their chances at a BCS title shot with a loss a couple weeks ago. The Pokes have been very good in recent years, but always seem to get to the end of the season with a shot at a BCS bowl only to lose to Oklahoma. The Sooners haven;t been the same without Ryan Broyles, but they always have OK State's number. I'll take Oklahoma in a mild upset.

Prediction - Oklahoma 42 Oklahoma St. 38

ACC Championship in Charlotte, NC
5 Virginia Tech (-7.5) vs. 20 Clemson
The only thing that is prohibiting Virginia Tech from playing in the school's 2nd ever BCS title game is a 23-3 loss to Clemson earlier in the year. The Hokies haven't lost since. Clemson has since lost 3 times. These teams are certainly headed in different directions. Though Virginia Tech hasn't lost since their game at Clemson, they have had their fair share of close calls. They are playing much better than Clemson, so it is hard to think the Tigers get their 1st ACC Championship win, but they should keep it close.

Prediction - Virginia Tech 28 Clemson 24

Conference USA Championship
23 Southern Miss (+14.5) at 6 Houston
The Houston Cougars have a great chance to become the 1st team from Conference USA to ever get a BCS bid if they are able to knock off Southern Miss at home this Saturday.  Houston will look to remain undefeated behind the arm of Heisman contending QB Case Keenum. The Cougars have one of the nation's most explosive offenses and an underrated defense. Southern Miss is no slouch though. The Golden eagles are having one of their finest seasons. They won;t have enough to stop Houston from going BCS bowling.

Prediction - Houston 48 Southern Miss 31

New Mexico (+49.5) at 8 Boise St.
It is Senior Day in Boise and Kellen Moore and his teammates are looking to go out winners one more time. This should be one of the easier wins the class will have in their tenure at the school. The Broncos welcome New Mexico to the blue turf as a near 50-point favorite. With the expectation that Boise will beat the Lobos, it will be up to Southern Miss to knock off Houston if they wantt o return to the BCS.

Prediction - Boise St. 52 New Mexico 7

Pac-12 Championship
UCLA (+30.5) at 9 Oregon
The 1st ever Pac-12 Championship has a 30-point spread, thanks to a bad UCLA squad backing their way in. It doesn't help that this game isn't played at a neutral field, but instead is played at the higher ranked team. That team is Oregon where they are even more potent in Eugene. The Ducks have one of the most explosive offense in the country. The Bruins do not. UCLA lost to USC 50-0 last week. That forced the administration at UCLA to fire Rick Neuheisel. There's too much going on with the Bruins to give them a chance in this game.

Prediction - Oregon 45 UCLA 13

Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis, IN
11 Michigan St. (+9.5) vs. 14 Wisconsin
When these teams met in the regular season, it was possibly the best game of the year so far. Wisconsin was rolling over teams at the time and many thought that they would do the same against the Spartans. Sparty had other plans. Michigan State controled most of the game, and when Wisocnsin tied the game late, they had one more trick up their sleeve. MSU won on a Hail Mary on the game's final play. Now Wisconsin is rolling again and Michigan State is heavy underdogs again. I expect Wisconsin to get the job done this time.

Prediction - Wisconsin 34 Michigan St. 21

Iowa St. (+11.5) at 16 Kansas St.
Nobody thought that these teams would have the season that they are having. You always expect K-State to mbe competitive when Bill Snyder is patrolling the sidelines, but 10 wins would have been a stretch. Well they are a win away from reaching that point, and possibly a BCS bowl. The Wildcats would need some things to go their way to crack the BCS but it's a possibility. Iowa State is bowl eligible and ruined Oklahoma State's chance at perfection. That is a successful season in their eyes - no need to add to it.

Prediction - Kansas St. 35 Iowa St. 21

25 Texas (+2.5) at 17 Baylor
Baylor is already having their best season since joining the Big 12. A win over Texas this weekend would be icing on the cake. They will need Robert Griffin III to play the Heisman candidate that he is in order to do that. Texas has one of the best defenses in the conference and will want to keep Griffin III from having a Heisman moment in the season finale. RG3 was knocked out of last week's game and should get knock around some more this week. I'll take Texas to win a close one.

Prediction - Texas 30 Baylor 27

UNLV (+40.5) at 18 TCU
TCU is going out on top of the Mountain west regardless of what happens this weekend. They should be able to run the table in the conference for the 3rd straight season. They enter this game as a 40-point favorite over UNLV. The conference's most dominant team should finish off their tenure in the Mountain West with a 23-game conference winning streak.

Prediction - TCU 45 UNLV 10

22 West Virginia (E) at South Florida
The West Virginia Mountaineers can still win the Big East and head to the BCS - but they need some help. First and foremost, WVU needs to beat a struggling South Florida squad on Thursday night. Then they will Cincinnati to beat UConn on Saturday to force a 3-way tie with Louisville. The tiebreaker would go to highest BCS rank and with West Virginia the only Big East school ranked in the Top 25 they should get the nod. The Mountaineers will hold up their end of the deal.

Prediction - West Virginia 31 South Florida 24

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