Wednesday, November 16, 2011

NCAA Football - Week 12 Predictions

Ringer's Record
Last Week ATS: 8-11
Last Week SU: 13-6

Season ATS: 121-84 (59%)
Season SU: 173-41 (81%)

1 LSU (-29.5) at Ole Miss
LSU continues its break in the schedule with a trip to Oxford, Mississippi. This is not to down play the talent of Ole Miss, but they did just lose at home to Louisiana Tech last week. The Louisiana school they face this week is just a little bit tougher. This should be a nice tune up game for LSU as they get ready to play Arkansas on Thanksgiving weekend. Look for LSU to toy with the Rebels early and pull away late.

Prediction - LSU 42 Ole Miss 13

2 Oklahoma St. (-26.5) at Iowa St.
The Pokes reached 10-0 for the 1st time in school history last week as they demolished Texas Tech 66-6 in Lubbock. Now they head to Ames to take on the Cyclones of Iowa State. Oklahoma State is just 2 wins away from competing in the BCS National Championship Game, while the Cyclones need a win to get bowl eligible. This one will be played under the Friday Night lights. I don't think the Pokes will take it lightly.

Prediction - Oklahoma St. 51 Iowa St. 17

Georgia Southern (NL) at Alabama
The Crimson Tide's defense showed up again last week. They limited Mississippi State to just 1 TD. I bet they will make it extremely difficult for Georgia Southern to get into the end zone as well. Georgia Southern is one of the best teams in the FCS, but they will be no match for 'Bama. The Tide will use this game to gear up for redemption in this year's Iron Bowl.

Prediction - Alabama 52 Georgia Southern 6

USC (+14.5) at 4 Oregon
The Oregon Ducks are hitting their stride at the right time. As we roll into the end of the season and approach bowl season, Oregon is playing their best football. They went into Stanford last week and rolled over a team that had been crushing teams. They welcome USC into the hostile environment of Autzen Stadium this week. USC was the only other team to hang with Stanford this year. the Trojans have been playing well too, but they are running into Oregon at the wrong time.

Prediction - Oregon 48 USC 28

5 Oklahoma (-14.5) at 24 Baylor
Oklahoma has a tough task at hand to try and stay in the BCS Championship picture. Thanks to losses from Stanford and Boise last week, the Sooners remained relevant in the title chase. They head to Waco to face RG3 and Baylor on Saturday. Oklahoma has never lost to Baylor, but this could be the year. This is Baylor's most talented team since joining the Big 12 and the Sooners could be looking ahead to Bedlam. I don't think Baylor gets them this year, but they will put a scare into Sooner Nation.

Prediction - Oklahoma 42 Baylor 31

Mississippi St. (+13.5) at 6 Arkansas
Many people don't realize it, but Arkansas is actually very much alive in the SEC race and potentially even the National Championship race. The Hogs would need a lot to go their way, but it is not completely unfathomable that they could play in the BCS National Championship Game. They must take care of business on Saturday first. They host a Mississippi State squad that has underachieved this year. The Bulldogs were ranked to begin the year but are just 5-5 on the year. They should drop to 5-6 this week.

Prediction - Arkansas 35 Mississippi St. 17

Cal (+19.5) at 7 Stanford
Stanford saw their National Championship dreams dashed last week, as Oregon came into their house and ran all over them. It was their 1st loss in 17 games. Now they have to try to bounce back against their bitter rival, Cal in what is simply know as The Big Game. Andrew Luck needs a big performance to reestablish himself as the Heisman favorite. I fully anticipate Luck to put up big numbers.

Prediction - Stanford 38 Cal 17

8 Clemson (-7.5) at NC State
Clemson has already sewed up a spot in the ACC Championship game. It may be easy for Dabo Swinney's team to overlook this one. But that's no how Dabo's team rolls this year. This Clemson team is different from those of years past. The Tigers got a scare from wake last week, but pulled it out in the end. NC State is a team that has underachieved to an extent this season. They are another team that is just looking to become bowl eligible. They won;t accomplish that feat this week.

Prediction - Clemson 30 NC State 20

North Carolina (+10.5) at 9 Virginia Tech
The Hokies could clinch the spot opposite Clemson in the ACC Championship with a win and a Virginia loss this weekend. North Carolina looked like they were going to be a factor in the ACC race earlier in the season, but have played poorly of late. Frank Beamer always has his team ready to play. I expect them to be even more prepared for this one because they don't want the finale versus Virginia to be for all the marbles.

Prediction - Virginia Tech 28 North Carolina 16

SMU (+19.5) at 10 Houston
Houston has hit the big time. They have reached the Top 10 in the rankings, and now they welcome College Gameday to town for the 1st time ever. With Boise State's loss last week, it is very possible that the Cougars find themselves in a BCS game at the end of the regular season. They play host to their C-USA rival, SMU this week. The Mustangs will be given the duty of stopping Case Keenum. Keenum is ona mission and should keep the Cougars undefeated this week.

Prediction - Houston 48 SMU 28

11 Boise St. (-18.5) at San Diego St.
Boise lost in stunning fashion to TCU on the blue turf last week. Needing an extra point to tie the game, the Horned Frogs elected to go for 2 and punched it in for a 36-35 lead. It was a bad case of deja vu for the Broncos when they saw a potential game-winning FG sail outside the uprights to end their undefeated season for the 2nd straight year. They need to bounce back in San Diego against the Aztecs this week. Boise doesn't lose consecutive games.

Prediction - Boise St. 42 San Diego St. 21

12 Nebraska (+3.5) at 17 Michigan
This is the type of matchup that the Big Ten had in mind when they decided to offer Nebraska a spot in the Big Ten conference. Two traditional powers meet in the Big House on Saturday. Both teams need some help in order to overtake Michigan State in the Legends Division, but both are still alive to play in the inaugural Big Ten Championship. These teams are very similar and will probably come down to whose QB plays better. I'm taking Denard Robinson to outduel Taylor Martinez.

Prediction - Michigan 28 Nebraska 23

Indiana (+28.5) at 13 Michigan St.
It is possible that Michigan State could clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday. If they take care of business against lowly Indiana, the Spartan fans will be pulling for their in-state rivals Michigan. If Sparty wins and Michigan can knock off Nebraska, Michigan State will be Legends Division champs. The Hoosiers have been dreadful this year, so I don't foresee an issue with MSU holding up their end.

Prediction - Michigan St. 45 Indiana 13

The Citadel (NL) at 14 South Carolina
South Carolina concluded their SEC schedule last week with a 6-2 record in the conference. Unfortunately for them, their SEC title fate lies in the hands of Kentucky. They must depend on the Wildcats to pull a big upset of Georgia to get South Carolina in the SEC Championship for the 2nd consecutive year. Nonetheless, the Gamecocks should have an opportunity to get their struggling offense on track against FCS The Citadel.

Prediction - South Carolina 42 The Citadel 6

Kentucky (+30.5) at 15 Georgia
Everyone was calling for Mark Richt's head after Georgia began the season 0-2. Now the Bulldogs have reeled off 8 straight wins and are a win over Kentucky from representing the SEC East in the SEC Championship. Aaron Murray is throwing the excellently and has this offense clicking on all cylinders. Kentucky will not stand in their way to Atlanta.

Prediction - Georgia 48 Kentucky 14

16 Wisconsin (-14.5) at Illinois
When Wisconsin lost to Michigan State and Ohio State in back to back weeks, their chances at a Big Ten title looked bleak. Now here they are in control of their own destiny. With wins over Illinois and Penn State to finish the season, the Badgers will punch a ticket to Indianapolis. Illinois on the other hand, has lost 4 in a row since beginning the year 6-0. I think the bleeding will continue for the Illini.

Prediction - Wisconsin 34 Illinois 17

18 Kansas St. (+9.5) at Texas
K-State bounced back from losses to the Oklahoma schools, by winning a thrilling 4OT game against Texas A&M. Bill Snyder's team knows how to win games. They haven't beaten every team on their schedule that isn't contending for a National Championship. They head to Austin this week, to face a Longhorns team that struggled mightily at Missouri this week. Injuries are standing in Texas' way, and it could be a difficult finish to the season for Mack Brown.

Prediction - Kansas St. 28 Texas 21

19 Penn St. (+6.5) at Ohio St.
The road to Indy stays tough for Penn State. In the wake of the Jerry Sandusky scandal, and the firing of Joe Paterno, the Nittany Lions are facing their 3 toughest Big Ten games of the season. A week after losing to Nebraska in an emotional game, they head to Columbus where they have won only once since joining the conference. The Buckeyes have struggled this year, but I just don't see how Penn State maintains focus and goes on the road to win this game.

Predciction - Ohio St. 17 Penn St. 10

Colorado St. (+32.5) at 20 TCU
This could be a sweet farewell to the Mountain West for TCU. They went into Boise and did what no other team has been able to do in almost a decade, and that is beat Boise State on their own turf. A 36-35 TCU win gives them complete control in their final season in the Mountain West. Casey Pachall has been on fire lately, and he should be able to slice up the Colorado State defense.

Prediction - TCU 41 Colorado St. 17

21 Southern Miss (-23.5) at UAB
Southern Miss just barely escaped the upset bid of UCF last week, keeping their win streak in tact with a 30-29 victory. They can clinch a spot in the Conference USA Championship with a win this week. A win would also give them 10 wins for the 1st time since Brett Favre was enrolled there. UAB has had a bad season, but a win here could ease some of their pain. I don;t see it happening though.

Prediction - Southern Miss 41 UAB 21

Virginia (+17.5) at 22 Florida St.
Florida State is the ranked team in this matchup, but Virginia is the team that controls their own destiny in the ACC. FSU finds themselves in the rankings for the 1st time since a mid-season slump saw them drop 3 in a row. Virginia has surprised many this year getting to 7-3. With wins in their last 2 games they will find themselves playing in the ACC Championship for the 1st time. That won;t be easy, as the Seminoles have found their groove.

Prediction - Florida St. 31 Virginia 21

Boston College (+24.5) at 23 Notre Dame
Notre Dame is another historically rich school that has gotten back into the Top 25 after a long layoff. The Irish have been playing outstanding football and now they welcome fellow Catholic school, Boston College, into South Bend. BC has struggled mightily this year and it won;t get easier this week. Look for Notre Dame to dominate their 2nd consecutive ACC school after thumping Maryland last week.

Prediction - Notre Dame 37 Boston College 10

25 Cincinnati (-3) at Rutgers
Surprisingly, this a huge game in the Big East race. Cincinnati lost their 1st conference game of the season last week to WVU, but they remain in 1st in the awful Big East. Rutgers has just 2 conference losses and are off to a 7-3 start. Cincy lost Zach Callaros last week, but they have other weapons, mainly Isaiah Pead. The Bearcats will look to use a power running game a stingy D to establish complete control in the Big East.

Prediction - Cincinnati 24 Rutgers 17

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