ATS: 31-21
SU: 34-18
The weekend was not quite as wild as the Round of 64 was. Some order was restored, but thanks to opening round upsets we still wound up with 3 double-digit seeds (Xavier, NC State, and Ohio). The power conferences have made their presence known, taking up 14 of the 16 slots in the Sweet 16. The only 2 teams that are not part of a power conference are Xavier and Ohio. We all get a few days to recover from a busy weekend, as games will get going again on Thursday night. Here is a look at how I expect the Sweet 16 to shake out.
East Regional - Boston
1 Syracuse (-4) vs. 4 Wisconsin
I picked Vandy to come out of this region on Selection Sunday. Wisconsin won a prototypical Badger game with them on Saturday to advance to the Sweet 16 for the 2nd straight year. The Badgers dominated Montana in the opening round before winning the hard fought contest with Vandy. Syracuse has had their struggles in both games without Fab Melo. They nearly became the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed against UNC-Asheville and needed a strong 2nd Half performance to eventually overcome Kansas State. This game comes down to Wisconsin's ability to hit the 3-pointer. I like Syracuse to hold Wisconsin's shooters in check and grind out another victory.
Prediction - Syracuse 59 Wisconsin 53
2 Ohio St. (-7 ) vs. 6 Cincinnati
The state of Ohio is well represented in the Sweet 16. For the 1st time ever, one state has 4 schools in the Sweet 16. This matchup assures that there will be at least 1 Ohio school in the Elite 8. Ohio State looked a bit lackadaisical in their opening win over Loyola (Md) but overwhelmed them with talent. They faced a stiffer test against Gonzaga and they got an outstanding game from Aaron Craft and timely play from Jared Sullinger down the stretch to come out on top. Cincinnati is playing their best ball of the year. After reaching the Big East Tournament final, they have beaten talented Texas and Florida State teams in the NCAAs. This will be a physical game. The team that takes care of the ball and knocks down free throws will move on to represent Ohio. That team will be the Buckeyes.
Prediction - Ohio St. 71 Cincinnati 68
West Regional - Phoenix
1 Michigan St. (-4.5) vs. 4 Louisville
This should be a knock down, drag them out type of game. Michigan State survived a tough Saint Louis squad to reach familiar territory, the Sweet 16. Louisville is looking to become this year's UConn. Like the Huskies did last year, Louisville had an impressive run to claim the Big East Tournament title and have carried their strong play into the NCAA Tournament. I had these teams meeting int he Sweet 16 the day the brackets were announced. I picked Louisville to win the West Regional then, and I am sticking to my guns. Rick Pitino will force the Spartans to turn the ball over with full court pressure and the Cardinals advance.
Prediction - Louisville 62 Michigan St. 56
3 Marquette (-2) vs. 7 Florida
Florida was probably the biggest beneficiary of the Norfolk State upset of Missouri. That win gave the Gators a pass into the Sweet 16. Florida's 2 wins in the Big Dance have come by a combined 60 points versus Virginia and Norfolk State. People tend to forget that Billy Donovan has done this a time or two. Florida will square off with Marquette in Phoenix. The Golden Eagles outlasted two of the better mid-major teams in the country in BYU and Murray State. They will have to prove their worth against one of the big boys now. Florida has the talent to win this game, but I like the dynamic of Marquette's team.
Prediction - Marquette 70 Florida 69
South Regional - Atlanta
1 Kentucky (-9) vs. 4 Indiana
Just about everyone had Kentucky advancing to this point in the tourney and beyond. Many overlooked Indiana and their potential though. Remember, the Hoosiers were 1 of only 2 teams to beat Kentucky all season. Indiana controlled their game against New Mexico State in its entirety. They only controlled the final minutes against VCU, but that was enough to move Indiana into the Sweet 16 for the 1st time in a decade. Kentucky has advanced with relative ease, defeating Western Kentucky and Iowa State. This Indiana team is gritty and Tom Crean will get them battle Kentucky to the final seconds. When it comes down to it though, the Wildcats will avenge their early season loss and march on.
Prediction - Kentucky 69 Indiana 68
3 Baylor (-6) vs. 10 Xavier
Xavier is 1 of 3 double digit seeds remaining in the 2012 NCAA Tournament. Meaning that they have a chance to officially be crowned Cinderella this year. Nobody has ever doubted the talent of Xavier. They were ranked the top 10 at one point this year. After the ugly brawl against Cincinnati, they finished the year 13-12. But they are playing well now and are capable of beating anyone. the same can be said about Baylor. The Bears are without a doubt one of the most talented teams in the country. If their players utilize that talent Baylor is a legitimate National Championship contender. One of these teams will have the opportunity to showcase their talent against Kentucky.
Prediction - Baylor 80 Xavier 76
Midwest Regional - St. Louis
1 North Carolina (-10.5) vs. 13 Ohio
After North Carolina defeated and Creighton and then later when Purdue jumped out to an early lead on Kansas, the Tar Heels looked like a sure thing to reach the Final Four. But then news broke that PG Kendall Marshall suffered a fractured wrist, and Kansas stormed back to beat Purdue. Now Carolina's future does not look so certain. They get the lowest remaining seed in the tournament in the Sweet 16. Ohio has pulled off upsets of Michigan and South Florida. They need to pull off the biggest upset of all to reach their 1st Regional Final since 1964. It won't be easy, even if Kendall Marshall doesn't play. Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller, Jon Henson and others will step up and end Ohio's Cinderella run.
Prediction - North Carolina 76 Ohio 64
2 Kansas (-7.5) vs. 11 NC State
If North Carolina beats Ohio then this game will set up a story line for the Elite 8. If Kansas and Carolina play it will be all about Roy Williams. If NC State pulls the upset it will be all about the Tobacco Road rivalry. The Wolfpack is vying to make it 2 years in a row that a double digit seed makes it to the Midwest Regional Final. It was VCU in 2011, and guess who they beat to reach the Final Four? Kansas. NC State still has some work ahead of them to reach the Final Four even if they win this game. They have had a nice run for a team that was on the bubble nonetheless. They will have to get past the nation's biggest overachievers. Kansas wasn't expected to be as strong as year's past in 2012. But here they are about to make it to the Elite 8.
Prediction - Kansas 74 NC State 68
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