16 Western Kentucky (-4.5) vs. 16 Mississippi Valley St.
March Madness kicks off with Western Kentucky taking on Mississippi Valley State. Western Kentucky was 5-14 at one point this year, but got hot late to win the Sun Belt title. Mississippi Valley State was just 1-11 after a brutal non-conference schedule. They rebounded by winning the SWAC regular season and tournament championships. The winner of this "play-in" game will earn the right to travel to Louisville to battle the nation's #1 team, Kentucky. Western Kentucky has won 6 consecutive games despite having just a 15-18 record. They haven't reached the tournament since 2009, but did win games in both the 2008 and 2009 tourneys. The Valley cruised through the SWAC this season and are looking to get the school's 1st tournament victory ever. I have the Delta Devils making school history and advancing on to play Kentucky.
Prediction - Mississippi Valley St. 71 Western Kentucky 70
14 BYU (-2) vs. 14 Iona
This game features the two teams that most people had a gripe about being included in the field of 68. BYU had some success in the 1st season as a West Coast Conference member. The Cougars found life without Jimmer difficult against the better teams though. BYU only went 1-6 against other tournament teams, with their lone win coming over Gonzaga. Iona's selection to the NCAA Tournament came out of nowhere. The Gaels had a great season, but they were completely off the radar in terms of at-large selection. But here they are attempting to become the 2012 edition of VCU. Iona didn't have any marquee victories but they challenged themselves against good competition and played away from home in every game through December. Despite the lack of big-time wins, both of these teams have big-time talent. BYU is lead by strong play in the front court by Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies. Iona is lead by the Guards. Scotty Machado and MoMo Jones have NBA talent. Strong Guard play is what advances you in March.
Prediction - Iona 87 BYU 68
16 Lamar (-3) vs. 16 Vermont
Lamar and Vermont square off in Dayton on Wednesday night for the right to play the North Carolina Tar Heels. Both of these teams have identical 23-11 records, and were probably a bit surprised to be playing in the "First Four". Lamar has won their last 6 games in route to the Southland title. This came after their Head Coach, Pat Knight ripped into the Seniors on the squad and they have responded. On the other sideline, Vermont has won 17 of their last 19 games. This should be a good game, but I like Lamar to get the job done.
Prediction - Lamar 79 Vermont 75
12 Cal (-2) vs. 12 South Florida
Cal and South Florida finish up the "First Four" on Wednesday night. The Pac-12 has now been represented in the "First Four" in each of its first 2 years. Cal had a very good record at 24-9, but were downgraded because of the poor reputation the Pac-12 garnered throughout this down year for the conference. Of Cal's 24 wins, only 1 came against a Tournament team (Colorado). South Florida got into the NCAAs based on their strong Big East record. The Bulls were lucky enough to have a relatively soft schedule within the conference. The 12-6 mark they finished with was their best since joining the Big East. Both of these teams have trouble scoring the ball, but are very good defensively. South Florida doesn't have one player that averages double digits in scoring. The first team to reach 50 points will win this game.
Prediction - Cal 59 South Florida 51
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