Sunday, April 6, 2014

2014 NCAA Tournament - National Championship Game Prediction

Ringer's Tournament Record
ATS: 34-32
SU: 43-23

The college hoops season comes to a close on Monday night, when two unlikely but storied programs take the court. UConn and Kentucky have been two of the most successful programs in college basketball history. But nobody expected these two to be playing on the final night of the season coming into the NCAA Tournament. In fact, UConn as a 7 seed and Kentucky as an 8 seed, will combine for the highest seeds to ever play for the National Championship.

There have been plenty of ups and downs for both teams this season. Each of them waited for the right time to play their best basketball though. One could argue that UConn and Kentucky have taken the toughest possible roads to get here. I have not picked UConn to win a game since the Round of 64 when they needed overtime to defeat St. Joe's. I actually had Kentucky making a run to the Elite 8, but they have been underdogs in three of their last four games and managed to win them all in thrilling fashion. The two biggest stars of the 2014 NCAA Tournament have been UConn's Shabazz Napier and Kentucky's Aaron Harrison. Napier has dominated the opposition in just about every game the Huskies have played. Harrison has hit a clutch three in the final seconds in each of the Wildcats' last three games. One of them will have one final shining moment on Monday night to cap off an unbelievable March Madness.

7 UConn (+3.5) vs. 8 Kentucky

How they got here
UConn beat: St. Joe's 89-81 OT, Villanova 77-65, Iowa St. 81-75, Michigan St. 60-54, Florida 63-53
Kentucky beat: K-State 56-49, Wichita 78-76, Louisville 74-69, Michigan 75-72, Wisconsin 74-73

Record vs. Tournament Teams
UConn: 12-5
Kentucky: 8-6

Kentucky began the season as the #1 team in the country. They never lived up to their potential. At certain points in the season there was talk of this team being one of the most over-hyped squads ever. Now they are one win shy of John Calipari's second national title. The highly touted freshmen have learned to play to their strengths and Kentucky is finally looking like the team that many thought was the best in the country. UConn is playing every bit as well as Kentucky though. They battled through some tough American Conference games, but have found their A game at the right time. The Huskies were known for their offensive prowess lead by Shabazz Napier, but their defense has stifled some of the best teams in the country throughout the tournament. This game should be another thriller. I've learned not to count either team out, which makes it extremely difficult to pick a winner. The game will come down to the final minutes in all likelihood. The team that keeps its poise and can come up with a big shot will cut down the nets in Jerry's World. The prime candidates are Napier and Harrison.  Napier is cold-blooded, but why can't Harrison make it four games in a row? When it is all said and done, this group of freshmen starters will do something the Fab 5 couldn't - close the deal. Kentucky will win its second National Championship Game in three years.

Prediction - Kentucky 68 UConn 67

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