Friday, April 27, 2012

2012 NBA Playoffs

The 2012 NBA Playoffs tip off on Saturday afternoon. There are only 2 new participants in this year's playoffs compared to 2011. The LA Clipperes and Utah Jazz crashed this year's party. Everyone else was here last year. The Dallas Mavericks limped through the regular season, but get a chance to defend their title. The Heat try to avenge their NBA Finals loss and finally get LeBron his long awaited ring. Boston tries to get one last hurrah from their aging veterans. San Antonio wants to show that the regular season was no fluke. Derrick Rose and Kevin Durant both want to prove that their teams are for real and that they should be the faces of the NBA. And don't count out Kobe and the Lakers. There are plenty of teams that can walk away with the Larry O'Brien trophy in 2012. Vegas has once again appointed the Heat as the favorites. Let's take a look at how I see the playoffs playing out.

For the opening round I have listed all of the individual matchups in each series with the player/team I give the advantage to in bold.

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals

Chicago BullsPhiladelphia 76ers

1 Chicago (-1400) vs. 8 Philadelphia (+900)

PG - Derrick Rose vs. Jrue Holiday
SG - Richard Hamilton vs. Evan Turner
SF - Luol Deng vs. Andre Iguodala
PF - Carlos Boozer vs. Elton Brand
C - Joakim Noah vs. Spencer Hawes
Bench - Chicago vs. Philadelphia
Coach - Tom Thibodeau vs. Doug Collins

What the Bulls accomplished this year was amazing. They finished with the league's best record despite missing Derrick Rose for almost half the season. Rose may not be at full strength but he doesn't need to be for the Bulls to win. The 76ers faded down the stretch and don't have enough firepower to overcome a suffocating Bulls D. Chicago should have their way with Philly.

Prediction - Chicago over Philadelphia 4-1

Boston CelticsAtlanta Hawks

4 Boston (-210) vs. 5 Atlanta (+170)

PG - Rajon Rondo vs. Jeff Teague
SG - Avery Bradley vs. Kirk Hinrich
SF - Paul Pierce vs. Joe Johnson
PF - Brandon Bass vs. Josh Smith
C - Kevin Garnett vs. Zaza Pachulia
Bench - Boston vs. Atlanta
Coach - Doc Rivers vs. Larry Drew

This should be the most evenly matched series of the Eastern Conference Quarters. The Hawks will actually have homecourt advantage despite being the lower seed. The Celtics have been a different team since Doc Rivers moved Kevin Garnett to Center and inserted the pesky Avery Bradley to the starting lineup. Atlanta is probably headed towards a typical Atlanta season - have a good regular season and bow out early in the playoffs. Look for the Celtics to make some noise in the playoffs.

Prediction - Boston over Atlanta 4-2

Indiana PacersOrlando Magic

3 Indiana (-800) vs. 6 Orlando (+550)

PG - George Hill vs. Jameer Nelson
SG - Paul George vs. JJ Redick
SF - Danny Granger vs. Jason Richardson
PF - David West vs. Ryan Anderson
C - Roy Hibbert vs. Glen Davis
Bench - Indiana vs. Orlando
Coach - Frank Vogel vs. Stan Van Gundy

The curtains are about to close on Orlando's drama for the season. The soap opera starring Dwight Howard and Stan Van Gundy is now down to just one leading actor as Dwight Howard is out for the season. That leaves Van Gundy to lead a depleted team. Indiana has exceeded all expectations this year and have potentially the most balanced team in the entire NBA. The Pacers balance will overwhelm this Magic team and finally put this forgettable season to rest for them.

Prediction - Indiana over Orlando 4-2

Miami HeatNew York Knicks

2 Miami (-1000) vs. 7 New York (+650)

PG - Mario Chalmers vs. Baron Davis
SG - Dwayne Wade vs. Iman Shumpert
SF - LeBron James vs. Landry Fields
PF - Chris Bosh vs. Carmelo Anthony
C - Udonis Haslem vs. Tyson Chandler
Bench - Miami vs. New York
Coach - Erik Spoelstra vs. Mike Woodson

The Knicks have had an up and down season. I'm afraid they are about to go down though. The Heat have not played well at times this season, particularly since the All-Star Break, but LeBron James is going to come into this postseason more determined than ever. The Knicks have been playing well since Mike Woodson went to his small lineup. New York certainly has the talent to give the Heat some problems. The chip on Miami's shoulder is going to be way too large for them to go down this early.

Prediction - Miami over New York 4-1

Western Conference Quarterfinals

San Antonio SpursUtah Jazz

1 San Antonio (-2000) vs. 8 Utah (+1200)

PG - Tony Parker vs. Devin Harris
SG - Danny Green vs. CJ Miles
SF - Kawhi Leonard vs. Gordon Heyward
PF - Tim Duncan vs. Paul Millsap
C - DeJuan Blair vs. Al Jefferson
Bench - San Antonio vs. Utah
Coach - Greg Popovich vs. Tyrone Corbin

The Spurs have done it again. After last season's 1st Round exit many thought that they were finished. But Greg Popovich proved why he's one of the all-time great coaches. Pop brilliantly mixed youth with his veterans and the combination has produced fantastic results. The Spurs are once again the top seed in the West, and this time they don't seem like they will go down early. The Jazz are back in the playoffs after a 1-year absence, but they will have to wait another year before they will make some postseason noise.

Prediction - San Antonio over Utah 4-2

Memphis GrizzliesLos Angeles Clippers

4 Memphis (-200) vs. 5 LA Clippers (+200)

PG - Mike Conley vs. Chris Paul
SG - Tony Allen vs. Randy Foye
SF - Rudy Gay vs. Caron Butler
PF - Marresse Speights vs. Blake Griffin
C - Marc Gasol vs. DeAndre Jordan
Bench - Memphis vs. LA Clippers
Coach - Lionel Hollins vs. Vinny Del Negro

The Clippers are giving me an opportunity to take one underdog. They have immense talent, but are they ready to win. We know that the Grizzlies have a veteran squad that knows how to win when it counts. Chris Paul will need to rely on his experience more than ever as many of his young teammates have never played postseason basketball. But the Clippers are loaded with talent. The Grizzlies are more polished than the Clips, but I have a feeling that this is the year the Clippers put it together and make a playoff run.

Prediction - LA Clippers over Memphis 4-3

Los Angeles LakersDenver Nuggets

3 LA Lakers (-240) vs. 6 Denver (+190)

PG - Ramon Sessions vs. Ty Lawson
SG - Kobe Bryant vs. Aaron Afflalo
SF - Matt Barnes vs. Danilo Gallinari
PF - Pau Gasol vs. Kenneth Faried
C - Andrew Bynum vs. JaVale McGee
Bench - LA Lakers vs. Denver
Coach - Mike Brown vs. George Karl

This is a very interesting matchup. The Lakers have Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum and have won multiple titles together. But they are making their first postseason push without the revered Phil Jackson coaching. Denver is a true team. They have young talent that doesn't know the pressures of playoff basketball, and may be oblivious to it. I expect the Nuggets to scare the daylights out of the Lakers. But the Lakers win in the end because of Kobe, Gasol, and Bynum.

Prediction - LA Lakers over Denver 4-2

Oklahoma City ThunderDallas Mavericks

2 Oklahoma City (-550) vs. 7 Dallas (+400)

PG - Russell Westbrook vs. Jason Kidd
SG - Thabo Sefolosha vs. Delonte West
SF - Kevin Durant vs. Shawn Marion
PF - Serge Ibaka vs. Dirk Nowitzki
C - Kendrick Perkins vs. Brendan Heywood
Bench - Oklahoma City vs. Dallas
Coach - Scott Brooks vs. Rick Carlisle

The Dallas Mavericks begin their quest for a repeat as a 7-seed against the team they beat in last year's Western Conference Finals. The Mavs have struggled throughout the year and now get perhaps the favorite to win the West this season. Oklahoma City has had some struggles of their own down the stretch. Despite those struggles, the Thunder feels this is their time to make a run at the NBA title. Look for the Mavs to go down swinging in their quest for a repeat, but the Thunder survive and advance.

Prediction - Oklahoma City over Dallas 4-2

Here are my picks for the remainder of the NBA Playoffs (bold team the winner):

Eastern Conference Semifinals

1 Chicago over 4 Boston 4-1
2 Miami over 3 Indiana 4-1

Western Conference Semifinals

1 San Antonio over 5 LA Clippers 4-3
2 Oklahoma City over 3 LA Lakers 4-2

Eastern Conference Finals

1 Chicago over 2 Miami 4-3

Western Conference Finals

2 Oklahoma City over 1 San Antonio 4-1

NBA Finals
1 Chicago over 2 Oklahoma City 4-2

I am ticking with my preseason pick of Chicago over Oklahoma City. The Bulls have surpassed all expectations with their play without Derrick Rose. Despite losing Rose for about 1/3 of the year, Chicago finished with the NBA's best record. Now they hope to slowly get Rose back to full strength. If this happens, the Bulls have what it takes to eventually get past the Heat and win the team's first title since the Jordan days. D-Rose wants to be the next one to have status outside of the United Center.

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