Beat the Spread

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

2013 PGA Championship Preview

Golf's major championship season comes to a close this weekend as the best players in the world head to Oak Hill CC in Rochester, NY. The East Course will host the PGA Championship for the first time since 2003. A decade ago, it was Shaun Micheel coming out of nowhere to shock the golf world by winning the PGA Championship. In the last 20 majors, there have been 18 different champions. The only two men to win multiple majors are Rory McIlroy (the defending PGA champion) and Phil Mickleson (the most recent major champion). Neither of those Men are the favorite this week though. You guessed it. Tiger Woods is the oddsmakers favorite yet again. Tiger was dominant at the Bridgestone Invitational last weekend. He looks primed to break his skid. There are a lot of men capable of capturing the Wanamaker Trophy this year. Here is a look at my Top 10 favorites to win golf's final major of 2013.

1. Zach Johnson - USA (35/1)

World Golf Ranking: 26th

Best PGA Finish: T3 (2010)

Average 2013 Score: 71.16

2. Tiger Woods - USA (4/1)
World Golf Ranking: 1st

Best PGA Finish: Champion (1999, 2000, 2006, 2007)

Average 2013 Score: 70.00

3. Jason Dufner - USA (38/1)
World Golf Ranking: 21st
Best PGA Finish: 2nd (2011)
Average 2013 Score: 71.00

4. Lee Westwood - England (28/1)
World Golf Ranking: 12th
Best PGA Finish: T3 (2009)
Average 2013 Score: 71.06

5. Adam Scott - Australia (18/1)
World Golf Ranking: 5th
Best PGA Finish: T3 (2006)
Average 2013 Score: 70.75

6. Steve Stricker - USA (50/1)
World Golf Ranking: 13th
Best PGA Finish: 2nd (1998)
Average 2013 Score: 69.90

7. Martin Kaymer - Germany (50/1)

World Golf Ranking: 35th

Best PGA Finish: Champion (2010)

Average 2013 Score: 72.12

8. Luke Donald - England (40/1)

World Golf Raking: 9th

Best PGA Finish: T3 (2006)

Average 2013 Score: 71.05

9. Jason Day - Australia (40/1)

World Golf Ranking: 20th

Best PGA Finish: T10 (2010)

Average 2013 Score: 70.95

10. Rory McIlroy - Northern Ireland (35/1)

World Golf Ranking: 3rd

Best PGA Finish: Champion (2012)

Average 2013 Score: 71.46

Thursday, July 18, 2013

MLB Mid-Season Report

The all-star break has past, and the boys of summer are heating up. There are some important story lines coming down the stretch - most notably Chris Davis's pursuit of Roger Maris (I'm still not sure if we should acknowledge the 73 HR Barry Bonds hit in a season), and the Pittsburgh Pirates bid to end 21 years of futility. The Pirates have been one of the biggest surprises baseball. If the playoffs were to start today, I would have 5 of 10 correct from my preseason picks (Detroit, Texas, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Cincinnati). My World Series pick, the Angels, are battling just to get to .500. With that said, I have no choice but to jump ship. My new pick is the St. Louis Cardinals. They have the most solid and consistent roster in baseball. Below is how I see the 2013 season finishing up based on current standings, preseason projections, and simulations of the rest of the season.

AL East
Boston 91-71
Tampa Bay 89-73
NY Yankees 88-74
Baltimore 86-76
Toronto 82-80

AL Central
Detroit 90-72
Cleveland 82-80
Kansas City 78-84
Chicago Sox 71-91
Minnesota 66-96

AL West
Texas 92-70
Oakland 89-73
LA Angels 86-76
Seattle 73-89
Houston 57-105

NL East
Atlanta 93-69
Washington 86-76
Philadelphia 82-80
NY Mets 72-90
Miami 62-100

NL Central
St. Louis 95-67
Cincinnati 91-71
Pittsburgh 87-75
Milwaukee 72-90
Chicago Cubs 71-91

NL West
Arizona 85-77
Los Angeles 84-78
San Francisco 81-81
Colorado 75-87
San Diego 70-92

AL Wild Card
Tampa Bay over Oakland

NL Wild Card
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh

ALDS
Texas over Tampa Bay 3-1
Detroit over Boston 3-2

NLDS
St. Louis over Cincinnati 3-1
Atlanta over Arizona 3-0

ALCS
Detroit over Texas 4-2

NLCS
St. Louis over Atlanta 4-2

World Series
St. Louis over Detroit 4-2

Mid-Season Awards
AL MVP - Miguel Cabrera, Det
AL Cy Young - Max Scherzer, Det

NL MVP - Paul Goldschmidt, Arz
NL Cy Young - Clayton Kershaw, LAD

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

2013 British Open Preview

The world's best golfers are gearing up for the third major of the year. Muirfield Golf Links in Scotland will host the 142nd Open Championship. Though it's a links course like the majority of the courses the British Open is played at, Muirfield's layout makes it unique. The setup causes the wind to play an even bigger factor than usual during this major. The last time the Open was played here was in 2002 when Ernie Els took home the Claret Jug. Eleven years later, Els returns to Muirfield as the defending champion as he won another Claret Jug last year. To nobody's surprise, Tiger Woods enters the tournament as the favorite with 7 to 1 odds. Tiger claims he's healthy, but has been battling an injured elbow. A non-American has won the Open five of the past six years. Jason Day and Justin Rose are co-favorites from outside of the USA. This is by far the most unpredictable of the four majors, because weather is such a key factor. Here is a look at my favorites to walk away with the Claret Jug on Sunday.

1. Brandt Snedeker - USA (35 to 1)

World Golf Ranking: 8th

Best British Open Finish: T3 (2012)

Average 2013 Score: 70.19

2. Lee Westwood - England (25 to 1)

World Golf Ranking: 12th

Best British Open Finish: 2nd (2010)

Average 2013 Score: 71.02

3. Luke Donald - England (28 to 1)

World Golf Ranking: 9th

Best British Open Finish: T5 (2005, 2009)

Average 2013 Score: 70.94

4. Ernie Els - South Africa (28 to 1)

World Golf Ranking: 13th

Best British Open Finish: Champion (2002, 2012)

Average 2013 Score: 71.47

5. Adam Scott - Australia (25 to 1)

World Golf Ranking: 4th

Best British Open Finish: 2nd (2012)

Average 2013 Score: 70.84

6. Tiger Woods - USA (7 to 1)

World Golf Ranking: 1st

Best British Open Finish: Champion (2000, 2005, 2006)

Average 2013 Score: 70.28

7. Rickie Fowler - USA (50 to 1)

World Golf Ranking: 33rd

Best British Open Finish: T5 (2011)

Average 2013 Score: 70.87

8. Matt Kuchar - USA (45 to 1)

World Golf Ranking: 6th

Best British Open Finish: T9 (2012)

Average 2013 Score: 70.07

9. Dustin Johnson - USA (40 to 1)

World Golf Ranking: 24th

Best British Open Finish: T2 (2011)

Average 2013 Score: 71.08

10. Sergio Garcia - Spain (30 to 1)

World Golf Ranking: 15th

Best British Open Finish: 2nd (2007)

Average 2013 Score: 70.71

Prediction - I am taking Brandt Snedeker to break through and win his first major. Snedeker has been a model of consistency and is on the verge of being a superstar. He seems to always be in contention and this week should be no different at Muirfield. I usually take the easy way out and take Tiger as my top pick, but he has disappointed me too many time over the last few years. Ultimately, I see one of these ten men winning the Claret Jug. If I am forced to pick one, I like Snedeker to become a major champion.