ATS: 15-21
SU: 23-13
The Round of 32 will begin on Saturday afternoon, leaving us one step closer to the Final Four in Atlanta. There was not a whole lot of drama on the opening day, until one of the last games of the day. Harvard shocked New Mexico to get their first tournament win in school history. The second day brought more as Florida Gulf Coast, LaSalle, and Ole Miss became the latest low seeds to advance. There have been no buzzer beating shots, though Marquette's Vander Blue did hit a layup with 1 second left to finish off an improbable comeback against Davidson and avoid the upset. I'm sure there is plenty more drama to come over the weekend. Here is a look at who I expect to see advance to the Sweet 16.
South Regional - Auburn Hills
4 Michigan (-3) vs. 5 VCU
How they got here:
Michigan beat: South Dakota St. 71-56
VCU beat: Akron 88-42
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Michigan: 9-6
VCU: 6-7
The most intriguing thing about this matchup is definitely Trey Burke going up against VCU's vaunted "havoc" defense. The Rams made Akron look silly in the Round of 64. Trey Burke has abilities that maybe nobody else in the country has though. If Burke can take care of the ball and control the game Michigan should advance.
Prediction - Michigan 65 VCU 63
Midwest Regional - Auburn Hills
3 Michigan St. (-5.5) vs. 6 Memphis
How they got here:
Michigan St. beat: Valpo 65-54
Memphis beat: St. Mary's 54-52
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Michigan St.: 9-7
Memphis: 2-3
This is a matchup of strength versus athleticism. Michigan State has dominated opponents on the boards this year with their superior strength and fundamentals. Memphis is one of the most athletic teams in the country. Tom Izzo has been winning games in March for a long time. Josh Pastner just got his first tourney win on Thursday.
Prediction - Michigan St. 74 Memphis 65
Midwest Regional - Lexington
1 Louisville (-10.5) vs. 8 Colorado St.
How they got here:
Louisville beat: North Carolina A&T 79-48
Colorado St. beat: Missouri 84-72
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Louisville: 12-5
Colorado St.: 5-7
Louisville's pressure defense was overwhelming for North Carolina A&T. Colorado State hasn't seen anything like that all season either. The Cardinals want to force the tempo and make the Rams play quicker than they used to. If Colorado State can make it a half court game, then they could pull the upset.
Prediction - Louisville 72 Colorado St. 64
West Regional - Salt Lake City
6 Arizona (-10) vs. 14 Harvard
How they got here:
Arizona beat: Belmont 81-64
Harvard beat: New Mexico 68-62
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Arizona: 6-5
Harvard: 2-2
Harvard pulled off the upset of the tournament to this point. How well does that slipper fit though? They need another win to truly be pegged as Cinderella. Many thought Arizona could fall to Belmont, but the Wildcats controlled the game from start to finish. Tommy Ammaker will have a gameplan to keep this game close, but Arizona's superior talent comes through in the end.
Prediction - Arizona 64 Harvard 59
Midwest Regional - San Jose
4 St. Louis (-4) vs. 12 Oregon
How they got here:
St. Louis beat: New Mexico St. 64-44
Oregon beat: Oklahoma St. 68-55
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
St. Louis: 9-2
Oregon: 5-5
Saint Louis played their steady kind of game in their opener, disposing of New Mexico State by 20. Oregon were out to prove that the selection committee was wrong by seeding them 12, and did so. The Ducks now have a chance to get into the Sweet 16 as a double-digit seed. We usually see one team like this every year.
Prediction - St. Louis 73 Oregon 66
East Regional - Lexington
3 Marquette (-2.5) vs. 6 Butler
How they got here:
Marquette beat: Davidson 59-58
Butler beat: Bucknell 68-56
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Marquette: 7-7
Butler: 7-6
Marquette needed a Davidson meltdown and a last second layup by Vander Blue to advance to the weekend. Many expected Bucknell to beat Butler, but Brad Stevens showed once again that he knows how to get the best out of his teams in the tournament. Marquette and Butler played in Maui earlier this year with Butler winning by a point. I expect a similar outcome in Lexington.
Prediction - Butler 72 Marquette 71
West Regional - Salt Lake City
1 Gonzaga (-6.5) vs. 9 Wichita St.
How they got here:
Gonzaga beat: Southern 64-58
Wichita St. beat: Pittsburgh 73-55
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Gonzaga: 9-2
Wichita St.: 3-2
Many have questioned whether the Zags had true 1 seed credentials despite finishing the year ranked #1 by the AP. Then they went out and had a nail biter versus 16 seed Southern, furthering those questions. Wichita State left no questions in their thumping of Pitt. This has lead to speculation that the Shockers will put an end to Gonzaga's dream season. I don;t see it that way.
Prediction - Gonzaga 68 Wichita St. 52
East Regional - San Jose
4 Syracuse (-7.5) vs. 12 Cal
How they got here:
Syracuse beat: Montana 81-34
Cal beat: UNLV 64-61
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Syracuse: 8-8
Cal: 7-6
Syracuse absolutely thrashed Montana in the opener, winning by 47 points. Cal was very impressive as well, controlling their game versus a good UNLV team. Cal is capable of playing multiple styles, which bodes well when playing the Orange. Syracuse is rolling over the last couple weeks though, and I don't see that changing this weekend.
Prediction - Syracuse 64 Cal 56
West Regional - Dayton
2 Ohio St. (-7) vs. 10 Iowa St.
How they got here:
Ohio St. beat: Iona 95-70
Iowa St. beat: Notre Dame 76-58
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Ohio St.: 10-7
Iowa St.: 8-8
Ohio State has been a team known for their defense all season. They are finding their offensive stride at the right time. They out up 95 points in their opener, which is the most of anyone in the 2013 NCAA Tournament. They will need their defense to come through against the Cyclones though. Iowa State is capable of beating anyone of they are stroking it.
Prediction - Ohio St. 83 Iowa St. 66
East Regional - Dayton
1 Indiana (-11.5) vs. 9 Temple
How they got here:
Indiana beat: James Madison 83-62
Temple beat: NC State 76-72
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Indiana: 10-6
Temple: 6-3
Temple is no stranger to battling top teams. They beat Syracuse this year, and came close to beating Kansas. Indiana may be a different monster. The Hoosiers gave up a late rally to James Madison, but thoroughly dominated them throughout most of the game. Khalif Wyatt has an injured thumb but says he will play. He will need to play and play well for Temple to have a chance to beat Indiana.
Prediction - Indiana 79 Temple 61
South Regional - Kansas City
1 Kansas (-6) vs. 8 North Carolina
How they got here:
Kansas beat: Western Kentucky 64-57
North Carolina beat: Villanova 78-71
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Kansas: 13-3
North Carolina: 3-8
Kansas nearly made history in the Round of 64 - in a bad way. Western Kentucky had them on the ropes and they were close to being the first 1 seed to ever lose to a 16 seed. They survived and advanced though, which is the name of the game. North Carolina was up and down in their game versus Villanova. the Tar Heels lead by as many as 19, let it slip away, and regained control in the end. It's always interesting when Roy Williams faces the school he coached for so many years. This will be no different.
Prediction - Kansas 75 North Carolina 61
South Regional - Austin
3 Florida (-8.5) vs. 11 Minnesota
How they got here:
Florida beat: Northwestern St. 79-47
Minnesota beat: UCLA 83-63
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Florida: 6-4
Minnesota: 7-8
Florida and Minnesota both made it look easy in the Round of 64. Florida never gave Northwestern State any hope, and Minnesota lived up to their potential in demolishing UCLA. Each team has been ranked in the Top 10 at different points this season. Neither ended there. This is their time to prove their worth.
Prediction - Florida 64 Minnesota 54
South Regional - Philadelphia
7 San Diego St. (-7) vs. 15 Florida Gulf Coast
How they got here:
San Diego St. beat: Oklahoma 70-55
Florida Gulf Coast beat: Georgetown 78-68
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
San Diego St.: 6-8
Florida Gulf Coast: 2-3
I bet you didn't see this East Coast vs. West Coast matchup coming. San Diego State, maybe. Florida Gulf Coast, not so much. The Aztecs have had some tourney success in recent years. This was Florida Gulf Coast's first appearance in the big dance. The Eagles are batting 1.000 at this point and are making the most of their opportunity. Their journey may come to an end Sunday night, but the Eagles have made a name for themselves.
Prediction - San Diego St. 75 Florida Gulf Coast 62
West Regional - Kansas City
12 Ole Miss (-3.5) vs. 13 LaSalle
How they got here:
Ole Miss beat: Wisconsin 57-46
LaSalle beat: Boise St. 80-71, Kansas St. 63-61
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Ole Miss: 4-3
LaSalle: 5-5
It seems like there is one matchup of double-digit seeds in the Round of 32 every year. This is the 2013 version. LaSalle is trying to duplicate their A-10 partner, VCU, and make a run from the First Four to the Final Four a la the Rams in 2011. Ole Miss will try to continue riding the hot hand of their outspoken star Marshall Henderson.
Prediction - Ole Miss 71 LaSalle 70
East Regional - Austin
2 Miami (-7) vs. 7 Illinois
How they got here:
Miami beat: Pacific 78-49
Illinois beat: Colorado 57-49
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Miami: 9-3
Illinois: 7-9
Miami proved they were ready for the big stage by dominating Pacific from start to finish on Friday. Illinois has been up and down all year, but they were up in their opener versus Colorado. This game presents a new test for both teams. Who will pass?
Prediction - Miami 72 Illinois 69
Midwest Regional - Philadelphia
2 Duke (-5.5) vs. 7 Creighton
How they got here:
Duke beat: Albany 73-61
Creighton beat: Cincinnati 67-63
Record vs. Tournament Teams:
Duke: 12-2
Creighton: 6-3
This isn't a traditional battle of blue bloods, but it will do. The Blue Devils and Blue Jays will go at it in Philadelphia on Sunday night. Duke is a regular in the Sweet 16, Creighton is not. If there is a player who can take them there, it is Doug McDermott. He will need help, as Duke's torrential D will undoubtedly be keyed on him.
Prediction - Duke 75 Creighton 70
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