Last Week ATS: 2-2
Last Week SU: 3-1
Playoffs ATS: 5-3
Playoffs SU: 7-1
NFC Championship Game
San Francisco (-4.5) at Atlanta
The Atlanta Falcons finally won a playoff game! Matt Ryan, Tony Gonzalez, and Mike Smith all got over the proverbial hump with the Divisional Playoff victory over Seattle last week. Now can they get into the Super Bowl and bring a title back to a title-hungry city? In order to do so they need to get past the mean and nasty San Francisco 49ers. This is a classic battle of offenses versus defense. Well, sort of. San Francisco is known for their defense, but put up 45 points in a win over Green Bay last week. Atlanta is known for their offense, but has a defense that flies to the ball.
The one thing that has given this Atlanta defense throughout the season is dual-threat QBs. Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and even Michael Vick had great success picking up chunks of yardage against the Falcons this year. Colin Kaepernick may present the biggest challenge yet for them. Kaepernick is coming off of the ultimate game for a dual-threat QB. He sliced up the Packers for 263 yards through the air and 181 yards on the ground, and was responsible for four TDs. It is essential that the Falcons slow him down if they want to keep their hopes for their first Super Bowl title alive. Offensively, Atlanta must keep Matt Ryan upright and allow him time to connect with his explosive receivers down the field. The San Francisco D is well-rounded and difficult to gain yards on in any aspect. The Falcons will need to stick with what they're good at, and try to move the ball through their passing attack. Expect the 49ers to come up with creative packages to force Ryan into mistakes, much like Seattle did in the 2nd half of last week's contest.
San Francisco has been hungry to to avenge last season's heartbreaking NFC Championship loss all year. This is their chance to redeem themselves. Atlanta has played the role of underdog all year. Despite having the league's best record, not many have considered them legitimate contenders. This may be Kaepernick's first time playing on a stage like this, but there is plenty of experience around him. The 49ers will be ready to play this game and find a way to pull this one and punch their ticket to Super Bowl XLVII.
Prediction - San Francisco 24 Atlanta 22
AFC Championship Game
Baltimore (+9) at New England
This is a rematch of an epic AFC Championship from a year ago. Most thought that we would have Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning this week. Instead we get Tom Brady versus Ray Lewis, not a bad consolation. The Ray Lewis farewell tour lasts at least one more week. It wasn't Lewis and the Baltimore D that got the Ravens here though. Joe Flacco threw a bomb to Jacoby Jones in the final minute to force OT against the Broncos last week, a game in which the Ravens obviously went on to win. Last year's game was so good between these teams, that I don't think there's too many people outside of a select few cities that are entirely bummed about them meeting again.
Baltimore and New England won their games in different fashions last week. New England took control of their game against Houston early on, and poured it on in the 3rd quarter to take a 25-point lead at one point. The Texans clawed their way back to make the final score look respectable, but the outcome was never in doubt as the Patriots won 41-28. Baltimore battled back and forth in the brutally cold air at Mile High. The teams traded blows all night, setting up an ending for the ages. Down 35-28 with just 31 seconds to play, Flacco hit Jones on an unthinkable 70-yard strike to knot the game at 35. Following a Peyton Manning interception, Justin Tucker kicked the Ravens into the AFC Championship for the second straight year.
With a win, the Patriots will appear in their seventh Super Bowl in the Brady/Belichick era. They have lost the last two and haven't won a ring since the 2004 season. The Ravens are looking to send their fearless leader out on top. Lewis has been to the mountain top once in his career, but it's been twelve long years. Expect these teams to battle to the end. That has become the norm when they meet. Even when they met during the regular season, Baltimore prevailed 31-30 on a Tucker field goal. New England's offense has been as explosive as ever this season. Baltimore's offense has been clicking as of late. This game will be won by which defense plays better though. The Ravens D has been one of the best in the league for a decade. That is no longer the case. The Patriots D is much improved from a year ago, and has a knack for coming up with big plays when needed. Tom Brady will be terrific again, but the defense will help pave the way to yet another Super Bowl for New England.
Prediction - New England 26 Baltimore 21
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