The 2011 Masters - Weekend

The 2011 Masters is shaping up to be a dandy. The leaderboard is full of rising stars, and a few familiar faces are popping up as well. Tiger Woods turned it on with a 2nd Round 66. Woods is currently in a tie for 3rd, just 3 strokes behind the leader, Rory McIlroy. Only half of my top 10 favorites made the cut. The man I picked to win the green jacket, Hunter Mahan, failed to make it into the weekend. So that means I'm forced to change my pick. Here is a look at how my top 10 favorites have fared to this point as well as the new odds and my new pick to win the 2011 Masters.

Pre-Tournament Favorites:

Hunter Mahan
Current Standing: +2, missed cut

Phil Mickleson
Current Standing: -2, T22

Padraig Harrington
Current Standing: +5, missed cut

Tiger Woods
Current Standing: -7, T3

Retief Goosen
Current Standing: +4, missed cut

Fred Couples
Current Standing: -5, T7

Angel Cabrera
Current Standing: -3, T18

Stewart Cink
Current Standing: +2, missed cut

Steve Stricker
Current Standing: -1, T35

Anthony Kim
Current Standing: +2, missed cut

New Weekend Favorites:

1. Tiger Woods (2 to 1)
Current Standing: -7, T3

2. Rory McIlroy (3 to 1)
Current Standing: -10, 1

3. Fred Couples (40 to 1)
Current Standing: -5, T7

4. KJ Choi (10 to 1)
Current Standing: -7, T3

5. Phil Mickleson (22 to 1)
Current Standing: -2, T22

Weekend Prediction - In yesterday's round I saw that glimmer in Tiger's eye again. His swing has been a bit off, and so as his confidence. It looked like the confidence returned yesterday, and that is bad news for the rest of the field. Moving day is going to be huge. If Tiger plays his way into the final group, this tournament is all but over. Even though, he's the oddsmakers favorite at this point, I still think it's a bold move to take Tiger to win his 5th green jacket based on the way he has played over the last year. Nonetheless, I started to see some of the old Tiger yesterday and I think he restores himself as the game's greatest player.

The 2011 Masters

The Masters will kick off the "unofficial" start of the 2011 PGA season. Augusta National is a special place that brings out the best in many. To nobody's surprise Phil Mickleson is the oddsmakers' favorite to win it again this year. He is the defending champion and is coming off of a win last week at the Shell Houston Open. Tiger Woods has continued to struggle throughout the beginning of the year, but you can never count him out in this tournament. While these two men have every right to be the favorites heading into the week, there are many others who I feel could be worth betting on. Here are my top 10 bets to take home the green jacket in 2011.

1. Hunter Mahan (25 to 1)
Average Masters Finish: 26th in 4 starts
Average 2011 Score: 70.03 in 9 starts

2. Phil Mickleson (5 to 1)
Average Masters Finish: 12th in 18 starts (3 wins)
Average 2011 Score: 69.82 in 8 starts (1 win)

3. Padraig Harrington (50 to 1)
Average Masters Finish: 27th in 11 starts
Average 2011 Score: 70.78 in 6 starts

4. Tiger Woods (8 to 1)
Average Masters Finish: 12th in 16 starts (4 wins)
Average 2011 Score: 71.17 in 4 starts

5. Retief Goosen (70 to 1)
Average Masters Finish: 25th in 12 starts
Average 2011 Score: 70.75 in 5 starts

6. Fred Couples (80 to 1)
Average Masters Finish: 19th in 26 starts (1 win)
Average 2011 Score: 70.08 in 3 starts

7. Angel Cabrera (100 to 1)
Average Masters Finish: 28th in 11 starts (1 win)
Average 2011 Score: 71.39 in 6 starts

8. Stewart Cink (100 to 1)
Average Masters Finish: 33rd in 13 starts
Average 2011 Score: 70.67 in 7 starts

9. Steve Stricker (40 to 1)
Average Masters Finish: 44th in 10 starts
Average 2011 Score: 69.05 in 6 starts

10. Anthony Kim (30 to 1)
Average Masters Finish: 12th in 2 starts
Average 2011 Score: 70.54 in 9 starts

Prediction - I am taking Hunter Mahan to win his first major and slip on the green jacket this Sunday. Mahan is better than the PGA average in scoring, driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, and putting. He has 5 top 10 finishes in 8 starts this year, which includes an 8th place finish last week, and has finished in the top 10 at the Masters in 2 of his 4 starts. He is playing well and will enter his name into the hat of the PGA's elite.

2011 NCAA Tournament - National Championship Game

The 2011 NCAA Tournament will come to an end Monday night when UConn and Butler meet for the National Championship. The game will cap an unbelievable tournament and crown a new champion. This unlikely matchup features two teams riding remarkable hot streaks. UConn has won ten games in a row, while Butler has won their last fourteen.  One of those streaks will come to an end tomorrow night. Jim Calhoun has the chance to join the likes of John Wooden, Adolph Rupp, Bobby Knight, and Mike Kryzewski as the only coaches ever to win three national championships. Butler has the chance to join Villanova as the lowest seeded teams to ever win the national championship. One way or another, history will be made when this one is all said and done.

3 UConn -3.5 vs. 8 Butler

How they got here:

UConn beat - Bucknell 81-52, Cincinnati 69-58, San Diego St. 74-67, Arizona 65-63, Kentucky 56-55
Butler beat - Old Dominion 60-58, Pittsburgh 71-70, Wisconsin 61-54, Florida 74-71 OT, VCU 70-62

Positional breakdown:

Backcourt (Advantage UConn) - You can't go against Kemba Walker
Frontcourt (Advantage Butler) - Matt Howard and Kyle Marshall are relentless on the boards
Coaching (Advantage UConn) - Jim Calhoun already has 2 National titles to his credit

Butler was inches away from taking home the National Championship last season. A half-court heave by Gordon Heyward at buzzer bounced off the rim and the Bulldogs' dreams were dashed. In an even more amazing journey, they have returned to the title game for the second consecutive year. This time they expect to win and hope to avoid the heartache that they had to endure in 2010. The 8th seeded Bulldogs will face 3rd seeded UConn for a shot at redemption tomorrow night. UConn finished 9th in the Big East this year, but Kemba Walker has lead this team marvelously and has them on the verge of the school's first national championship since 2004. Walker has had possibly the single greatest season a UConn player has ever had. Now that they have reached this point, he will not be satisfied unless the Huskies take the title. Butler has unfinished business of their own though. Look for Ronald Nored to get plenty of playing time and try to lock up Walker while making the other Huskies beat them. Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier, and Alex Orhiaki will need to come up big. If they can get solid games from this trio, it will be heartbreak city for the small school in Indianapolis again. I expect a close game, but I can't imagine that Kemba Walker's epic run will finish with anything other than a championship. The UConn Huskies will have their one shining moment and cut down the nets in Houston, capping off one the most memorable tournaments we have ever had.

Prediction - UConn 66 Butler 61

Ringer's NCAA Tournament Record
ATS: 33-33
SU: 43-23

2011 NCAA Tournament - Final 4

The Final Four is upon us. We are now just a day away from the most unlikely of Final Fours beginning. All four teams in Houston have taken unlikely paths. We can throw out a number of stats that can put the 2011 Final Four into perspective. When you add up the seedings of all the teams, it equals 26, which is the largest number ever competing in the Final Four. For the first time ever, there is no number 1 or number 2 seed represented. It is just the second time, and the first since 1979, that two teams from a mid-major have advanced this far. And when Butler and VCU square off Saturday night, their seedings combined will be the largest we have ever seen by two teams playing each other in the Final Four. The list actually goes on, but I will spare you. Let's take a closer look at this historic Final Four that features the aforementioned mid-majors in Butler and VCU, as well as traditional powers UConn and Kentucky.

8 Butler -2.5 vs. 11 VCU

How they got here:

Butler beat - Old Dominion 60-58, Pittsburgh 71-70, Wisconsin 61-54, Florida 74-71 OT
VCU beat - USC 59-46, Georgetown 74-56, Purdue 94-76, Florida St. 72-71 OT, Kansas 71-61

The team leaders:

Butler
Points - Matt Howard 16.7 PPG, Shelvin Mack 15.2 PPG
Rebounds - Matt Howard 7.8 RPG, Andrew Smith 5.4 RPG
Assists - Shelvin Mack 3.6 APG, Ronald Nored 2.6 APG

VCU
Points - Jamie Skeen 15.3 PPG, Bradford Burgess 14.0 PPG
Rebounds - Jamie Skeen 7.5 RPG, Bradford Burgess 6.1 RPG
Assists - Joey Rodriguez 4.8 APG, Darius Theus 2.2 APG

Who could have possibly seen this coming? This game will lead off this historic Final Four, and these two teams have plenty to do with why it is so historic. VCU joins fellow CAA member George Mason and LSU as the only 11 seeds to ever reach the Final Four. And in the inaugural year of the "First Four" they become the first team to win 5 games to reach this point. The Rams aren't the only story line here though. Butler is the only team in the country to reach the Final Four in 2010 and 2011, and look to advance to the title game as a 5 seed and an 8 seed respectively. I actually had both Butler and VCU losing in the Round of 64. Boy did they prove me and plenty others wrong. One of them will reach the National Championship Game and have a chance to knock off a national powerhouse for the title. Shaka Smart's team has had a fabulous run, but they will run into a bigger and more experienced Butler team. VCU needs Joey Rodriguez to control the tempo of this game and get open shots for Jamie Skeen and Bradford Burgess in transition to win. Brad Stevens and his Butler Bulldogs want to make this a half-court game and grind it out with Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard leading the way. If VCU continues to shoot lights out from beyond the arc they will win. Unfortunately, for the Rams I think their luck finally runs out and the experience of Butler leads them into their second consecutive National Championship Game appearance.

Prediction - Butler 68 VCU 65

3 UConn +2.5 vs. 4 Kentucky

How they got here:

UConn beat - Bucknell 81-52, Cincinnati 69-58, San Diego St. 74-67, Arizona 65-63
Kentucky beat - Princeton 59-57, West Virginia 71-63, Ohio St. 62-60, North Carolina 76-69

The team leaders:

UConn
Points - Kemba Walker 23.5 PPG, Jeremy Lamb 10.3 PPG
Rebounds - Alex Orhiaki 8.5 RPG, Kemba Walker 5.3 RPG
Assists - Kemba Walker 4.3 APG, Shabazz Napier 3.0 APG

Kentucky
Points - Brandon Knight 17.5 PPG, Terrence Jones 16.5 PPG
Rebounds - Terrence Jones 8.9 RPG, Josh Harrelson 8.8 RPG
Assists - Brandon Knight 4.2 APG, DeAndre Liggins 2.5 APG

When these two teams met in the finals of the Maui Invitational back in November it was unlikely that they would meet in the Final Four. At the time, UConn was unranked, and though ranked in the top 10, Kentucky was a team lead by freshmen. Kemba Walker emerged as a star during that tournament and never looked back. UConn had its ups and downs throughout the season and eventually wound up 9-9 in the Big East. Kemba Walker was always up despite some of the downs that the rest of his team had. He had an epic run through the Big East Championship that lead to 5 wins in 5 days and included a buzzer beater versus top seeded Pittsburgh. Then came the NCAA Tournament. Walker has lead his UConn squad to 4 more wins making them 12-0 in tournament games this season and getting them into the Final Four. They will face a Kentucky squad that has been just as impressive of late. They had some mid-season struggles on the road, but got hot at the right time. They won the SEC Tournament and has ridden that momentum into the Final Four. Their freshmen have more confidence and experience than ever. This game is tough to call. Looking at the rosters, Kentucky has the better team. But I am so hesitant to go against Walker and the UConn Huskies. I am taking team over individual in this one though. Kentucky moves on to their first National Championship game since 1998.

Prediction - Kentucky 67 UConn 62

Ringer's NCAA Tournament Record
ATS: 32-32
SU: 42-22