Saturday, July 16, 2011

2011 British Open - Weekend



















We knew coming into this Open Championship, that it would most likely be the most unpredictable of all the majors in 2011. It has certainly lived up to that expectation. The leaderboard is very crowded. Only 8 strokes separate 1st place from those who missed the cut. 31 golfers were withing 4 strokes of the lead when the 2nd Round ended. 2009 US Open Champion, Lucas Glover, is tied at the top with yet another golfer from Northern Ireland in Darren Clarke. My top 2 picks each missed the cut which forces me to change it up for the weekend. With so many men in contention, and the expected bad weather coming in, it will be anyone's guess who goes home with the 2011 Open title.

Pre-Tournament Picks:

Ernie Els - South Africa
Current Standing: +8, missed cut

Lee Westwood - England
Current Standing: +4, mised cut

Steve Stricker - USA
Current Standing: E, T19

Sergio Garcia - Spain
Current Standing: E, T19

KJ Choi - Korea
Current Standing: +3, T59

Adam Scott - Australia
Current Standing: -1, T14

Louis Oosthuizen - South Africa
Current Standing: +2, T45

Rory McIlroy - Northern Ireland
Current Standing: E, T19

Henrik Stenson - Sweden
Current Standing: +3, T59

Paul Casey - England
Current Standing: +3, T59

New Weekend Picks:

1. Martin Kaymer - Germany (6 to 1)
Current Standing: -3, T3

2. Charl Schwartzel - South Africa (12 to 1)
Current Standing: -2, T7

3. Adam Scott - Australia (35 to 1)
Current Standing: -1, T14

4. Lucas Glover - USA (15 to 1)
Current Standing: -4, T1

5. Sergio Garcia - Spain (25 to 1)
Current Standing: E, T19

Weekend Prediction - I went out on a limb at the beginning of the Open by taking Ernie Els to win the Claret Jug. The Big Easy went home after 2 rounds though. Heading into the weekend there could be as many as 30 to 40 golfers with the capability of winning this tournament. When looking at the leaderboard, the first name that jumps out to me is Martin Kaymer. The oddsmakers agree as he is the new favorite at 6 to 1 to win the 2011 British Open. No man currently at Even par or better would surprise me by winning, but since this is what I do I'm forced to pick. Give me Kaymer to win his 2nd major.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

2011 British Open



















The world's best golfers head across the pond for a chance to win the Open Championship. The links golf course holding the 140th Open this year is Royal Saint George's. A windy test is sure to wait, and Royal Saint George's is as unpredictable a course as the world may have. The last time the Open was played at this course in Sandwich, England was in 2003 when Ben Curtis took home the Claret Jug. To nobody's surprise, the favorite heading into the Open is Rory McIlroy. McIlroy has drawn comparisons to Tiger Woods since dominating the competition throughout the US Open at the young age of 22. Vegas has McIlroy listed at 5 to 1 odds to win back to back majors. Englishmen and the world's top 2 ranked players are the only other players with odds of 10 to 1 or better in Lee Westwood (8 to 1) and Luke Donald (10 to 1). It has been 21 years since an Englishmen took home the Jug when Nick Faldo won it in 1990. It should be interesting to see what happens in this most unpredictable of Opens.

1. Ernie Els - South Africa (50 to 1)
World Golf Ranking: 24th
Best British Open Finish: 2002 Champion
Average 2011 Score: 72.29

2. Lee Westwood - England (8 to 1)
World Golf Ranking: 2nd
Best British Open Finish: 2nd in 2010
Average 2011 Score: 70.13

3. Steve Stricker - USA (30 to 1)
World Golf Ranking: 5th
Best British Open Finish: 7th in 2008
Average 2011 Score: 69.09

4. Sergio Garcia - Spain (25 to 1)
World Golf Ranking: 53rd
Best British Open Finish: 2nd in 2007
Average 2011 Score: 70.47

5. KJ Choi - Korea (40 to 1)
World Golf Ranking: 13th
Best British Open Finish: 8th in 2007
Average 2011 Score: 70.50

6. Adam Scott - Australia (50 to 1)
World Golf Ranking: 17th
Best British Open Finish: 8th in 2006
Average 2011 Score: 71.09

7. Louis Oosthuizen - South Africa (80 to 1)
World Golf Ranking: 32nd
Best British Open Finish: 2010 Champion
Average 2011 Score: 71.59

8. Rory McIlroy - Northern Ireland (5 to 1)
World Golf Ranking: 3rd
Best British Open Finish: 3rd in 2010
Average 2011 Score: 70.55

9. Henrik Stenson - Sweden (60 to 1)
World Golf Ranking: 124th
Best British Open Finish: 3rd in 2008, 2010
Average 2011 Score: 72.60

10. Paul Casey - England (50 to 1)
World Golf Ranking: 14th
Best British Open Finish: 3rd in 2010
Average 2011 Score: 71.10

Prediction - Call it a hunch but I'm going to take Ernie Els to win his 2nd Open title. The Big South African has not played his best golf in 2011. But he always plays well in majors, and has finished in the top 10 of the British Open 9 times. With such a wide open field, and an unpredictable course, you could probably pull a name out of a hat and have a shot. Everyone is on the Rory McIlroy train, but I'm going a different route. I don't know how you can consider a 3-time major winner a longshot, but that's exactly what Els is. At 50 to 1 odds, I'll take Els to win his 2nd Claret Jug.

Monday, July 11, 2011

2011 MLB All-Star Game - HR Derby



















Tonight one man will be crowned baseball's HR king. Eight of the game's most powerful hitters will face off in the 2011 HR Derby. This year MLB tried to spice up the competition a little by having team captains select the participants. The AL captain is 2010 HR Derby champ David Ortiz. To represent the American League, Big Papi selected first year teammate, Adrian Gonzalez, Toronto's Jose Bautista, and the rival Yankees 2B Robinson Cano. For the National League, the 2009 HR Derby champ, Prince Fielder picked the squad. Joining him is teammate Rickie Weeks, the Dodgers' Matt Kemp, and Matt Holliday of the Cardinals. All of these men are capable of producing large numbers. Here is a look at the field and how I think things will shake up.

Jose Bautista (2 to 1)
- 1st Appearance
- 31 HR

Prince Fielder (3 to 1)
- 3rd Appearance
- 2009 Champion
- 22 HR

David Ortiz (3.5 to 1)
- 5th Appearance
- 2010 Champion
- 19 HR

Adrian Gonzalez (4 to 1)
- 2nd Appearance
- 17 HR

Matt Holliday (5 to 1)
- 2nd Appearance
- 14 HR

Matt Kemp (7 to 1)
- 1st Appearance
- 22 HR

Robinson Cano (8 to 1)
- 1st Appearance
- 15 HR

Ricky Weeks (10 to 1)
- 1st Appearance
- 17 HR

And the winner is - Adrian Gonzalez. You never want to go with the favorite in these types on events. Before looking at the lines, I thought that Jose Bautista could be a good bet. After all, the man has been hitting the cover off the ball over the last 2 seasons. Once he became the oddsmakers favorite, I knew I had to go in another direction. Gonzalez has a few things working in his favor. He is a lefty, he has participated in the HR Derby before, and he has plenty of experience playing at Arizona's Chase Field from his days playing in San Diego. At 4 to 1 odds, I think the best bet is Boston's Adrian Gonzalez.

Saturday, July 2, 2011

MLB - Mid-Season Report



















We have officially reached the half way point of the MLB season. To this point things have kind of played out the way we thought they would. If the playoffs were to begin today, I would have correctly picked 6 of the 8 playoff teams. As we all know it is a long season though. The trading deadline is approaching and there are sure to be some adjustments on the standings. Below is how the season would finish based off of current standings, preseason projections, and simulations of the season's second half.

AL East
NY Yankees 98-64
Boston 97-65
Tampa Bay 88-74
Toronto 82-80
Baltimore 69-93

AL Central
Detroit 86-76
Chicago Sox 82-80
Cleveland 80-82
Minnesota 80-82
Kansas City 65-97

AL West
Texas 87-75
LA Angels 81-81
Oakland 77-85
Seattle 73-89

NL East
Philadelphia 100-62
Atlanta 91-71
NY Mets 79-83
Florida 76-86
Washington 74-88

NL Central
Milwaukee 87-75
St. Louis 86-76
Cincinnati 82-80
Pittsburgh 73-89
Chicago Cubs 72-90
Houston 64-98

NL West
San Francisco 92-70
Colorado 84-78
Arizona 78-84
LA Dodgers 77-85
San Diego 74-88

ALDS
NY Yankees over Detroit 3-1
Boston over Texas 3-0

NLDS
Philadelphia over Milwaukee 3-1
Atlanta over San Francisco 3-2

ALCS
NY Yankees over Boston 4-1

NLCS
Philadelphia over Atlanta 4-0

World Series
NY Yankees over Philadelphia 4-2

Mid-Season Awards

AL MVP - Adrian Gonzalez, Bos
AL Cy Young - Justin Verlander, Det

NL MVP - Lance Berkman, StL
NL Cy Young - Roy Halladay, Phil